The knives are already
being sharpened for the leaders of Britain’s political parties, several of whom
could see their careers brought to a brutal end if they fail to deliver at the
May 7 election.
Conservative Prime
Minister David Cameron, his Liberal Democrat deputy Nick Clegg, leader of the
main opposition Labour party Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage of the anti-EU UK
Independence Party — all run the risk of being kicked out.
“All four are fighting
for their political life,” said Steven Fielding, professor of political history
at Nottingham University.
In an unusually
fragmented political landscape, it is no longer enough simply to win the most
seats.
After years of
dominance by the Conservatives and Labour, Westminster these days is more
complicated than that.
David Cameron
He arguably has the
most to lose. He became prime minister in 2010 after 13 years of Labour
government but the Conservatives failed to win enough House of Commons seats to
govern alone.
The result: a
coalition government with the Liberal Democrats which was deeply unpopular with
his party.
“If Cameron is not
prime minister, he will go,” said Simon Hix of the London School of Economics
(LSE).
He could even be
pushed out if he has a chance of remaining prime minister but would have to form
a new coalition or minority government to do so.
“Cameron, I think, is
unpopular — and of course, he hasn’t won an election,” said Stephen Ingle,
emeritus professor of politics at Stirling University.
“The Conservative
party is always, always about winning. He had everything for him in 2010 and he
didn’t win. So I don’t think he’s secure.”
Tony Travers of the
LSE added: “The Conservatives are more ruthless than Labour in getting rid of
their leaders.”
Cameron has already
raised the prospect of his own departure in a few years, saying he would not
seek a third term in office and naming three possible successors, including
charismatic London Mayor Boris Johnson.
BoJo, as Johnson is
nicknamed, “is willing to do anything to be the leader of the Conservative
party and to be PM”, said Fielding.
The mayor, though,
insists he has more chance of being “reincarnated as an olive”.
Ed Miliband
He became Labour
leader in 2010 under circumstances which could be straight out of a Greek
tragedy.
Miliband unexpectedly
beat older brother David to the job — or “stabbed his own brother in the back”,
in the words of Defence Secretary Michael Fallon this month.
But he has struggled
to persuade the country and some in his own party that he is prime minister
material.
“If he doesn’t win a
majority and Labour is still not the largest party, many backbenchers will want
to get rid of Ed Miliband. They will say he should have won this election after
five years of austerity,” Hix said.
Ingle added: “I think
the great majority of MPs would prefer his brother and they would have
preferred his brother at the last leadership election.”
Nick Clegg
It all looked so
promising for Clegg in 2010 — he led the Liberal Democrats into government for
the first time and became Cameron’s deputy prime minister.
But “Cleggmania” did
not last and the party’s support plummeted as it was forced into a series of
awkward compromises in power.
He is at serious risk
of losing his own House of Commons seat in Sheffield, northern England, which
would effectively put him out of a job.
Even if he keeps that
seat, “I would have thought that if the party does badly then he is almost
certain to go,” said Ingle.
Whatever happens to
Clegg, the Liberal Democrats could still end up propping up a minority
Conservative or Labour government — or even forming a new coalition.
Nigel Farage
The beer and
tobacco-loving eurosceptic has been clearer than any of the other leaders about
his future.
If he fails to win the
seat he is fighting in southeast England, Farage has promised to step down.
“Was I supposed to
brief UKIP policy from the Westminster Arms (a pub near Parliament)? No — if I
fail to win South Thanet, it is curtains for me,” he wrote in a book this year.
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